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MEDIAN on the EP elections: In which groups of voters did ANO, Pirates or ODS score and how loyal are the voters of each party?

The parties’ profits were significantly influenced by the different voter involvement and turnout. The decline in participation is the main reason for the fall of the CSSD and the decline in profit of ANO. Only about a third of the Social Democratic voters from the 2017 Parliament elections voted in the elections and less than 40% of the ANO voters. The participation of 2017 Pirate voters was also relatively weak (around 30%). Because of this Pirates failed to fulfil their electoral potential, which was above 20%. However, unlike the CSSD, the Pirates managed to reduce their decline by gaining other voters.

Voters of all other parties had a relatively high turnout of over 40 %, STAN voters from 2017 even higher than that. However, the problem for the TOP 09 and STAN coalition was that not all STAN voters voted for it. The participation of people who did not participate in the 2017 parliamentary elections was minimal in the European elections. That is why the overall turnout is around 28%, although it is usually higher among voters of individual parties. Interesting are also the approximate spill overs of votes among the people who participated in the elections. The analysis suggests that ODS and KDU-ČSL voters were the most loyal, re-electing their 2017 party of choice 80 % of the time, if they participated. Pirates and TOP 09 voters also had a relatively high loyalty (around 70%). The problem of the TOP 09 + STAN + Zelení coalition was that it was voted for by less than half of the STAN voters from 2017. The others preferred smaller parties (ESO, HLAS), Pirates or KDU-ČSL. The number of preferential votes for Luděk Nidermayer and the fact that the coalition of the center-right parties had the smallest increase of the total profit from the 2017 elections, suggests a possible negative impact of the election of the TOP 09 party leader Jiří Pospíšil as the number one candidate.

Pirates upped their profit to almost 14 % despite the weaker turnout of their own voters by addressing part of the former ČSSD, STAN and TOP 09 voters. ANO mobilized part of the left-wing and SPD voters to support them, which may hypothetically be a consequence of the support for Andrej Babiš during the demonstrations. Although these probably contributed to a higher participation of center-right opposition voters, in the second camp they probably harmed the left more than Babiš. In addition to its low turnout, the ČSSD suffered from almost half of their voters “running” left (to KSČM) or away from the traditional parties (ANO, SPD, Pirates).

More in the summary report.